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发表于 2018-11-30 11:05:59 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

Abdul Rozak??

It could be economically (although the PwC forecastsuggested that Indonesia's GDP will still be one sixth of China's GDP by 2050),but it might be in a different way from Chinese way of development. Theundemocratic nature of China's politics allows the government to focus on longterm planning for development with little to no oppostion, this also holds truein democratic Singapore where People's Action Party always won every electioneven before Singapore’s independencein 1965. Japan or South Korea might be a closer example to Indonesian system.Although their cabinet changes almost every year together with rapid rise andfall of prime ministers, but they hold onto their high moral values, thereforeit is not strange when a minister or important officials stepped down due tosmall mistakes. This makes the government consistent to their master plan.Indonesia has National Development Planning System as long term guidelines fornational economic development, but the pace would depend on how the runninggovernment works on it, hence the Indonesia's economic development is affectedheavily by political ploys inside the government, whether it is honest,corrupted, just, unjust, or else. If Indonesia's development seems good underthe current regime, there is no guarantee that it will sustain the pace afterthe current government stepped down, either national, provicial, or lower levelgovernment. Therefore I think that a continuous improvement in human resourcequality is the first step solution if Indonesia wants to be the next China,economically. This is because the highly qualified human resource will allow governmentpositions to be filled with skilled and more responsible statemen/women andmore highly paid jobs and industries opened, therefore a better economic levelis achieved.

它可能是经济上的(尽管普华永道(PwC)预测,到2050年,印尼的GDP仍将是中国GDP的六分之一),但它可能与中国的发展方式不同。中国政治的非民主性质使政府能够专注于长期的发展规划,几乎没有任何反对意见,这一点在民主的新加坡也同样适用。在新加坡,人民行动党(People’s Action Party)甚至在1965年新加坡独立之前就赢得了每次选举。日本或韩国可能是印尼系统的一个更近的例子。虽然他们的内阁几乎每年都在变动,总理的起起落落也在变化,但他们坚守着自己的崇高道德价值观,因此当部长或重要官员因小错下台时,这并不奇怪。这使得政府与他们的总体计划保持一致。印尼有国家发展规划体系作为国家经济发展的长期指导方针,但其发展速度将取决于政府的运作方式,因此印尼的经济发展受到政府内部政治策略的严重影响,无论是诚实、腐败、公正、不公还是其他。如果在当前政权下,印尼的发展看起来不错,那么在现任政府下台后,无论是国家政府、政府官员还是下级政府,都无法保证印尼的发展能够保持下去。因此我认为,如果印尼想在经济上成为下一个中国,那么不断提高人力资源质量是第一步。这是因为,高质量的人力资源将使政府职位充满技能和更负责任的官员/妇女,并开设更多高薪的工作和行业,从而实现更好的经济水平。

Kevin Anderson

No. Indonesia will continue to be Indonesia.


Dian Ardiansyah

OK. As an Indonesian i feel like i need to step in and beobjective because it seems there’sso much negativity surrounding this question.

Indonesia HAS the potential to be the next China, the mainquestion now WILL the country use it to its advantage.

For those who hate Indonesia for whatever reason i suggestyou all need to just fly away somewhere because it seems you will hate thiscountry NO MATTER WHAT.

OK lets go back to the question shall we. This answer isbased on my knowledge of this country. Indonesia is blessed with everything itneeds to be successful. From location, land, large population, culture,history, creativity and especially natural resource. Indonesia has everything.The main difference between China and Indonesia is the way its socio-politicalsystem works. In China its political system from the very beginning has alwaysbeen centralized. That’s just how theChinese system works. From the imperial time to modern time, China has alwaysbeen centralized.

Indonesia is different. Its political system has always beenin flux. In a nut shell China has always been centralized while Indonesia worksbest when it is decentralized. Why ?

Look at China. Its a continental country. Its not and neverwas a maritime country. Its also quite homogeneous. Culture and religion wiseits also very distinct and nearly everything develops from within.

Now look at Indonesia.

Its the worlds largest archipelago. It will always be amaritime country. In fact in the past it was a maritime power that defeated themighty China. From culture and religion, Indonesia has always absorb thingsfrom other parts of the world and assimilate them with its own ingenuity.

From ethnicall perspective, China pale in comparison toIndonesia. The archipelago is a tapestry of many ethnic groups that will makeeven the Chinese scratch their head on how to govern.

You can clearly see the main differences between the two.One is a centralized homogeneous continental country that will always be likethat and for China that’stheir magic formula. China’smagic formula has always been there staring at them in the face. WhileIndonesia hasn’t found itsmagic formula yet.

People said:

Why don’tIndonesia copy China ? Well can the Chinese system of creating Heaven on Earthwith every means possible sits well with religious and heterogeneousIndonesians?

What if i ask a Chinese :

Would you like to adopt an Indonesian style of Democracy?

I would also like to ask a Chinese:

If you are so proud of your system why does it creates somuch injustices and problems in your society?

To put it simply, the path to success is different fromperson to person and from country to country. Maybe China has finally found itsformula for success, well good for them. But as an Indonesian i can tell youwith certainty we haven’tfound that reliable formula to success yet.

The formula to become a successful, Industrial and a wealthycountry that consists of 17.000 islands with hundreds of ethnic groups that aredeeply religious and deeply oxymoronic at the same time has never been inventedbefore.

Until someone or something figure out that magic formula,Indonesia will continue to be a few steps behind China. Personally i’m not embarrassed by it. Why? becausewe as a nation are on the path of creating something brand new, something thatthe world has never seen before


















Indonesians are drunk on religion and politics. Chinese aresecular and don't care about politics. They just want to improve their lives.

Indonesians want to go heaven. Chinese want to create heavenon earth.

Indonesians admire corrupt politicians. Chinese kill them.

Indonesians complain when the government builds infrastructure.Chinese don't dare to complain and as a result, China’s infrastructure is light years ahead of Indonesia’s.

Indonesian political parties fought each other to gain morepower and the privilege to plunder the country. Chinese political party foughtinternally and the winners afterwards can concentrate on building the country.Indonesian politicians fight every five years. New winner will reverse policiesof the loser. Development marching on place.






Semar Manganov

Are you kidding Me ? LOL

Why next China ? Not Next Russia or Singapore?

Indonesia won’tbe the next China. Indonesia had banned communist since 1965.

In next 2 decades, I can bet Indonesian Industry n economywont be better than now. Due to politics n system of Government will slow downthe growth. We can learn from India. Unless only the hard lines governance canchange it.

The majority of Indonesia now is sacrify the real life forfuture after life. How can you live with that ?

China is not comparable with Indonesia its better take Indiaas benchmark.

China economy is $ 11 Trillions while India is $2.3Trillions some thing and Indonesia $ 930 billion only. If China no growth,Indonesia has to catch up growth 1100%. Thats nonsense. Forget about it

Its better Indonesia be realistic to do what they have nfocus on self sufficient economy.








Yu Che

It’s ok to havereligions.

But, in this current troubled world, it’s relly much better to bereligion-free, in which people can focus on the real issues, instead ofaccusing others for blasphemy. Religious fanaticism isn’t a problem shared by all believers. But it is indeed aserious problem.

For any developing country that wants to catch up with Chinaand many countries that are now developed such as Singapore and South Korea,they have to learn to concentrate their energy on the real deal. Wealthy andwell-established countries can afford playing dangerous social issues,developing countries cannot. At the end of the day, there are only so fewopportunites to catach.

There are many lessons here in Asia that Indonesia canlearn. I am just not sure whether they want to learn them or not.






Indonesia will not become the next china because:

1.Hardcore muslim are in rise in indonesia. They are nottolerant to others who are not muslims. like the prosecution of Christianchinese mayor AHOK. They want to make indonesia next Saudi Arab not next China.

2.Indonesia simply cannot compete with countries likevietnam and bangladesh to attract factories.

3.Connectivity and transportation is in very poor state inindonesia. other infrastructure like electricity, land, water are also in poorstate.






This is quite difficult, because Indonesia does not have somuch land and population, and of course culture is also very important. Ialways think that the United States is strong because many Jews in the SecondWorld War fled to the United States, and the Jews are very good at scientificresearch and business, thus stimulating the entire United States and theeconomy. If you investigate for yourself, the founders of the top companies inthe United States are mostly Jewish. Therefore, the culture of a country isvery important. Of course, if compared to countries with similar masses, suchas Japan. Indonesia is closer in terms of population, resources and land area.Perhaps Japan should be your goal.



Yau Chiam

Indonesia is a nation rich in resources. They will becomegreat if they prevent the rise of religion, reign in corruption, promotemeritocracy not promotion by political or religious connections.

A nation will not rise if religion is promoted above scienceand education.




Sure. Yess. Indonesia will be the next China. We are giantdemocratic country that gives opportunity for every nations to compete and havestrong relationship with USA, Japan and Europe Nations. Religion will not prohibitus to become modern country since we are not Islamic based law country. We arePancasila country that will support diversity in one nation.


B Fawcett

I think not. Indonesia needs to open up to the world more,and copy secular traits of the Chinese and developed countries. It couldhowever be a location for assembly of products, as China mainly was 10–15 years ago. Cheap labour and whatnot.China is so much more than that today already.


C. Michel??

No, it will become the next Pakistan


Ara Gusti

By China you mean industrially and technologically developedwhile maintaining a strong sense of Nationalistic and Cultural identity withouta sense of guilt of the past, then yes!

Ara Gusti

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